Thursday, June 14, 2012

Walk of Life, part 2

"If the details we are given fit our mental picture of something, then the more details in a scenario, the more real it seems and hence the more probable we consider it to be -- even though any act of adding less-than-certain details to a conjecture makes the conjecture less probable....Or, as Kahneman and Tversky put it, 'A good story is often less probable than a less satisfactory...[explanation].'"

-- From The Drunkard's Walk by Leonard Mlodinow, Pantheon Books, New York, 2008, pg. 24-25

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