Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Some with the good; some with the not-so-good

Both Maine and Hoffman lost, and I was surprised by both.

Conscience was not served by the Maine decision. Yet another shameful mark against the Catholic church, amongst other overtly Christianist types.

Love? Schmove.

Also too, 538's reliability comes back to earth:

"We had given Question 1 about a 70 percent chance of being defeated based on a combination of an analysis of the polling and a statistical model. I don't know how much time I'm supposed to spend defending being on the wrong side of a 70:30 bet -- we build in a hedge for a reason -- but here comes a little self-reflection. As for the polling, I think we have to seriously consider whether there is some sort of a Bradley Effect in the polling on gay rights issues, although one of the pollsters (PPP, which had a very bad night in NY-23) got it exactly right. As for the model, I think I'll need to look whether the urban-rural divide is a significant factor in a state in addition to its religiosity: Maine is secular, but rural. At the end of the day, it may have been too much to ask of a state to vote to approve gay marriage in an election where gay marriage itself was the headline issue on the ballot. Although the enthusiasm gap is very probably narrowing, feelings about gay marriage have traditionally been much stronger on the right than the left, and that's what gets people up off the couch in off-year elections."

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All that said, a big ol' "Ha-ha" on Hoffman. The usual suspects are doing the old "hey, look over there" shell game with the VA and NJ wins, and they're dancing the dance of joy re: their success in eating their own. Myself, I see it as (perhaps) a referendum on the viability of a *3rd party* in America. (Well, also on the viability of the extremely distasteful crap-slash-followers of the far right, but 'baggers aren't the sort to hear opinions like that, so I'll just stick with the 3rd party thing.)

The thing to take away from this? Palin campaigned for Hoffman and he lost; she didn't for the VA and NJ candidates until the very last minute, and they won.

Just sayin'.

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